Ontario's Forthcoming Integrated Energy Plan is not the Province's Energy Strategy

Ontario is fundamentally committed to nuclear power

Prior to the election, Ontario’s Ministry of Energy and Electrification committed to releasing an Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) in early 2025. While there are few hints as to what the plan will say, it is a safe bet that it will include ample discussion of a distributed resources, energy storage, natural gas and an “all-of-the-above approach to meet growing energy demands while reducing emissions.”

Whatever it contains, however, I am confident that the IEP will not mirror Ontario’s true energy strategy. The IEP and the Government’s energy strategy are distinct.

To appreciate what this means, it is useful to understand the difference between a plan and a strategy. A plan is like a blueprint. It is a sequence of actions. And so, the IEP “will provide specific details and commitments on government actions aimed at significantly expanding Ontario’s energy capabilities” across myriad technologies.

Strategy, in contrast, is about making a few critical choices that guide everything else. Academics define strategy as "the smallest set of choices that optimally guide (or force) other choices." The strategy shapes subsequent energy policies and investments, including the IEP.

Regardless of what the IEP includes, Ontario’s energy strategy is obvious. Ontario is fundamentally committed to nuclear power. This is true regardless of whether you support or oppose the province’s push for more nuclear.

The government may claim that it wants an all-of-the-above plan, but the sector is being designed with nuclear at its core. This is neither criticism nor endorsement, but an honest assessment of the province’s recent energy choices.

Evidence for Ontario’s nuclear-first strategy has accumulated over the past several years. For example, the government supported refurbishment of the existing fleet of reactors at Bruce Power and Darlington, extending their operational life by decades. It is refurbishing Pickering and building small modular reactors. Further, the province wants to expand the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station, proposing up to 4,800 MW of additional capacity and, more recently, OPG committed “to explore opportunities for new nuclear energy generation” in Port Hope. Nuclear as a cornerstone of Onatio’s energy strategy.

What Ontario’s Nuclear Strategy Means for Energy Policy

The key question is, well, so what? What should we take from this? Understanding the province’s strategy means that decisions around nuclear shape and constrain energy decisions at other levels of the sector, from infrastructure investments to natural gas to regulatory policies. This is the purpose of strategy. Strategy is designed to guide decisions by creating a strong logical or economic incentive for certain actions, while making alternative choices infeasible (e.g., through resource allocation, policy commitments, etc.).

In particular, nuclear has unique characteristics that differentiate it from other sources of energy (e.g., it is baseload power). This has implications for how the IEP fits with the energy strategy. For example, nuclear projects are invariably mega-projects. Unlike, say, distributed solar, it is not possible to build nuclear quickly, on a small budget.

Likewise, almost every aspect of nuclear is heavily regulated. Regulation supports safe construction and operation. It also means that “serendipitous” cost-savings are challenging to find as it is not possible to “experiment” during the construction of a nuclear reactor.

Understanding nuclear’s characteristics helps put other decisions in context. For example, Ontario must commit to long-term planning horizons and substantial upfront investments to support its nuclear strategy. This includes not only the construction and refurbishment of reactors but also the associated infrastructure.

Strategy, of course, evolves with market conditions, technology and competition. Indeed, Ontario has witnessed a dramatic evolution in its energy strategy over the past two decades. Not so long ago, the province was fully committed to wind and solar. Now, however, renewables occupy a relatively minor, supporting position in the province’s current energy policy discussions. At the moment, the strategy is nuclear first.

So, when considering the forthcoming IEP, keep in mind the province’s underlying energy strategy.